Speaking Deads: Sea Turtle Mortality Areas and Fisheries Overlaps Identified Through Backtracking of Stranded Carcasses in the Adriatic Sea

Interaction with fishing gears represents the main anthropogenic threat at sea for sea turtles worldwide, and identifying the hotspots of turtle bycatch is a priority knowledge gap. Turtle stranding data represent a source of information about mortality areas at sea that are not fully exploited. This study aims to infer turtle mortality areas of turtles stranded along the Italian Adriatic Coast in the period 2019–2021 (1432 records), through backtrack modelling of carcasses. Specifically, the decomposition process of eight loggerhead carcasses was monitored, and the relationship between floating period (FP), turtle size and sea temperature was modelled through a generalized additive model. Oceanographic information was then used to track the routes of floating carcasses back, knowing their size and decomposition stage, and finally estimate the likely area of mortality. A complementary numerical experiment of connectivity between coastal and offshore areas gave indication that areas of potential mortality are relatively close to the coast, particularly in the northern Adriatic. Stranded turtles probably represent just a small fraction (17%–25%) of total at-sea mortalities in the study area (Italian Adriatic waters), with decomposition rates, season and distance from shore influencing their stranding likelihood. Hence, strandings can inform only about spatio-temporal variability of coastal mortality hotspots. Inferred areas of turtle mortality were most likely located in the North and Central Adriatic all over the year and overlap with heatmaps of fishing effort, obtained from vessel monitoring system (VMS) and automatic identification system (AIS) data, in the Gulf of Manfredonia and in the North-West Adriatic in the cold (September–December) and warm (May–August) periods, respectively.